by Jason Osiason

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

ALT: TÁR

The Lowdown: This Best Film-Drama category comes down to movies by two comeback auteurs, Todd Field and Sarah Polley. MGM is placing a massive bet in its box office with Women Talking being showered in awards nominations for its upcoming Christmas Day release, which may prove to be wise for a film that would otherwise struggle with broad audiences. The Golden Globes has long been criticized for lacking women’s diversity and inclusiveness. I’d overall give the edge to Women Talking over the less accessible TÁR, which may only end up with Golden Globes nominations for Cate Blanchett’s commanding turn and its undeniable screenplay by filmmaker Todd Field.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Matilda the Musical

ALT: The Menu, White Noise, RRR

The Lowdown: This category seems finalized, but with the recent change of rules that allows Foreign Films to be nominated in the Best Film Categories, it could enable the Golden Globes to platform Bollywood’s megapopular RRR, which has been making headlines the last two weeks and crossing over to the American mainstream on Netflix since winning Best Director at the New York Film Critics Circle and landing a coveted spot on the National Board of Review’s Top 10 movies of the year. A movement for the movie’s awards hopes feels inevitable. Still, I’m not sure if the HFPA will be as ahead of the curve as NBR nor resist the international charms of the ambitious White Noise book adaptation by Netflix, Netflix’s MatildaMusical or Searchlight’s The Menu, which feels significantly up their alley as it satirizes class and global food culture and was a massive hit in theaters over the Thanksgiving holiday, versus RRR, which came out early this year and only just begun its comeback tour.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Austin Butler – Elvis

Will Smith – Emancipation

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Hugh Jackman – The Son

Bill Nighy – Living

ALT: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

The Lowdown: With the last spot being the nail-biter, I have to give the edge to Will Smith in Apple’s Emancipation. It’s a highly respected performance in a polarizing yet will-intended film about slavery in the Civil War era. When making your Golden Globe predictions, it’s always wise to bet on the representation of certain studios like Apple and their November/December releases. Golden Globes voting members typically don’t have the best memories, and I usually use that as the deciding factor. This will also be a successful way to generate PR for the return of the televised Globes by nominating Will Smith and being the first major awards group to have him potentially attend their awards show after the Academy banned Smith for ten years after the Chris Rock incident last year. On the other hand, Tom Cruise could be on better terms with the HFPA and will be invited to attend the ceremony regardless by nominating Top Gun: Maverick. Cruise’s performance is also not an undeniable factor which feels parallel to how Charlize Theron’s performance in Mad Max: Fury Road was ignored despite the film’s significant popularity with audiences and critics alike.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Billy Eichner – BROS

Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto

Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

ALT: Adam Driver, White Noise

The Lowdown: Surprisingly, this category could be ripe for surprises. The locks are Farrell and Craig; then you have to consider Tom Hanks’ already acclaimed performance in the soon-to-be-to-be-released A Man Called Otto is ready to plaster Hanks’ inevitable nomination on its marketing campaign. BROS should be in play for Best Film, Comedy, but its lack of theatrical success may leave him with a nomination for Best Actor nomination only. The Globes could also ignore Ralph Fiennes for his villainous turn in The Menu and instead nominate Adam Driver for White Noise or Adam Sandler for his heavily campaigned performance in a personal arthouse basketball favorite of mine, Hustle from Netflix. 

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

Naomi Ackie – Whitney Houston – I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

ALT: Viola Davis – The Woman King

The Lowdown: There is no way the HFPA is ignoring a biopic about Whitney Houston unless it’s getting Razzie-level attention, so I’m considering her a near-lock. It then comes down to Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis. With reminders from NBR and AFI, we are reminded how much of a surprising success The Woman King was back in September. September was a while ago, and as I mentioned, Globes loves the latest flavor of the month. Danielle Deadwyler’s performance in Till is classic awards bait and is winning awards like at the Gothams. While the Globes has a history of snubbing movies that came out before September and combined that factor with them previously overlooking Davis’ work for Widows, I’ll give the edge to Danielle Deadwyler.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Margot Robbie – Babylon

Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu

Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

ALT: Keke Palmer, Nope

The Lowdown: This is a solid consensus five. Keke Palmer would be a very deserving nomination for Jordan Peele’s Nope, but her campaign in Supporting may have helped her attribute a major critic award; it may hurt her otherwise probable chance in this televised category. The critical detail on why you should predict Lesley Manville for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris beyond it being an international film and a moderate indie success is HFPA’s relationship with Sony Pictures Classics.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

ALT: Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

The Lowdown: Do not count out Eddie Redmayne for his highly praised performance in the popular Netflix true crime title The Good Nurse, where he plays a real-life sociopathic murderer. He’s done all the campaign stops, so I’ll be surprised if he is left off the list tomorrow. It’ll come down to Judd Hirsch and Ben Whishaw. Hirsch is the more prominent name and acclaimed performance needs the nomination most to legitimatize himself as a major awards contender for The Fabelmans. At the same time, Women Talking‘s publicity tour has understandably geared its campaign toward female actresses, while Whishaw has backed away from any significant campaigning. Advantage, Hirsch.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis’s – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Claire Foy – Women Talking

Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

ALT: Hong Chau – The Whale

The Lowdown: This one pains me because Hong Chau gives one of the year’s best performances in the highly polarizing The Whale, and I think she’ll bounce back regardless as an awards coattail, but it’s hard to bet against any of these five actresses at the Golden Globes. Janelle Monae still has an outside chance at an actual Academy Award nomination, as I’m not sensing Glass Onion to be a Best Picture contender. Still, a nomination for musical superstar Janelle Monae at the Golden Globes is too good for them to pass up with a heavy campaign behind her.

Best Director – Motion Picture

James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

ALT: Todd Field, TAR

The Lowdown: The HFPA love music-focused biopics is a known fact, and Elvis is a highly stylized example on the grandest scale imaginable. Luhrmann being recognized for Elvis feels like a classic HFPA nomination, and the filmmaker has been campaigning aggressively alongside star Austin Butler. If not, look out for a nomination for Todd Field or Martin McDonagh.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Todd Field – TAR

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

ALT: Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The Lowdown: This seems locked and loaded, but a very outside shot of Glass Onion disrupting with Netflix’s backing highlights the film’s most substantial aspect.

Best Animated Feature Film

Wendell & Wild

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Marcel the Shell

ALT: Lightyear

The Lowdown: A real nailbiter! Do not count Lightyear out. While it may have been highly divisive for Pixar standards, it also technically one of the highest opening weekends of the year, and considering Pixar’s near flawless track record with the Golden Globes included nominations for The Good Dinosaur and Cars 2, Finding Dory‘s rare omission is not looking so bad. Marcel the Shell is the big critical darling. Still, it came out long ago, and being an animation-live-action hybrid leaves me thinking it has a better chance at an Academy Award nomination than a Golden Globe nomination which leans more toward the bigger studios. This is a category I’ll be editing until the last possible moment.

Best Foreign Language Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Close

Decision to Leave

RRR

ALT: Saint Omer

The Lowdown: This seems to be the consensus five movies. RRR will be the future winner despite it not even being eligible for the Oscar!

Best Original Score

Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water

Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking

Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

John Williams – The Fabelmans

alt: The Batman, Empire of the Light

The Lowdown: The last spot is probably going to Empire of the Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Batman, or Avatar: The Way of Water. My gut says go with a potentially top 5 movie and blockbuster that awards pundits are probably underestimating, but I’m going to with Glass Onion’s utterly masterful musical composition.

Best Original Song

Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

New Body Rhumba, White Noise

Nobody Like U, Turning Red

Stand Up, Till

The Lowdown: This set sounds about right! The very memorable LCD Soundsystem song from White Noise sounds seems to be heavily underpredicted. Still, it’s one of the most original and best songs of the year and heavily aligns with the type of songs they typically nominate.