BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Malte Grunert, Producer
• “Avatar: The Way of Water” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Banshees of Inisherin” Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
• “Elvis” Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
• “The Fabelmans” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
• “Tár” Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
• “Top Gun: Maverick” Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
• “Triangle of Sadness” Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
• “Women Talking” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Upset: The Banshees of Inisherin
Analysis: A DGA/PGA/SAG/WGA win-combo is near unstoppable, and this year’s BAFTA winner doesn’t even have a PGA nomination. One of the biggest Oscar locks since Slumdog Millionaire and The Artist’s respected years.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Austin Butler in “Elvis”
• Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
• Brendan Fraser in “The Whale”
• Paul Mescal in “Aftersun”
• Bill Nighy in “Living”

Who will win: Austin Butler
Upset: Brendan Fraser
Analysis: Fraser took the SAG Award in an awards shocker, but so did Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom which similarly didn’t receive nominations for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. Never bet against a transformative biographical frontrunner, especially one that took BAFTA and is one of the Best Picture nomination leaders. It would feel all sorts of wrong that an acclaimed Elvis biopic that broke through with both the mainstream and industry didn’t take it.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Brendan Gleeson in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
• Brian Tyree Henry in “Causeway”
• Judd Hirsch in “The Fabelmans”
• Barry Keoghan in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
• Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
Upset: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Analysis: There will not be an upset despite BAFTA. Quan’s narrative is an unstoppable force.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Cate Blanchett in “Tár”
• Ana de Armas in “Blonde”
• Andrea Riseborough in “To Leslie”
• Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans”
• Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Who will win: Michelle Yeoh
Upset: Cate Blanchett
Analysis: An extremely close race. Just a few weeks ago I was shouting never doubt BAFTA’s track record and throwing the classic Renée Zellweger Chicago versus Nicole Kidman for The Hours comparison, but while Chicago was strong it had some signs of weakness that Everything Everywhere All at Once likely won’t. It’s near-guaranteed to win Director and Screenplay, something Chicago didn’t achieve, and you can’t ignore the Yeoh momentum just prior to voting closing (plus it’s a splendid performance, of course).

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
• Hong Chau in “The Whale”
• Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
• Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
• Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Who will win: Kerry Condon
Upset: Jamie Lee Curtis
Analysis: Many think this is a three-way race, but I don’t think Angela Bassett has much of a chance to win anymore despite a showy performance, but… I think her inclusion in the race is going to massively impact Jamie Lee Curtis’ chances to win post-SAG as they are both pushing their overdue veteran status as their narrative. In a race without Bassett, it likely would’ve gone to Curtis who’s also an acting veteran starring in the Best Picture winner (think Morgan Freeman), but Condon has loyal and even more passionate supporters on both sides of the pond based on just genuine performance and film passion.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
• “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
• “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
• “The Sea Beast” by Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
• “Turning Red” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Who will win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Upset: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Analysis: Don’t bet against the director that got Nightmare Alley a Best Picture nomination

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” James Friend
• “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” Darius Khondji
• “Elvis” Mandy Walker
• “Empire of Light” Roger Deakins
• “Tár” Florian Hoffmeister

Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Elvis
Analysis: A tough one. I find Elvis’ cinematography much more impressive, but All Quiet on the Western Front has some sublime photography as well. In addition to winning BAFTA, it benefits from its war genre of winning in an extremely tight race.

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

• “Babylon” Mary Zophres
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Ruth Carter
• “Elvis” Catherine Martin
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Shirley Kurata
• “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Jenny Beavan

Who will win: Elvis
Upset: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Analysis: After winning BAFTA, and the competition being mostly weak this is one of the safer bets of the night.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

• “The Banshees of Inisherin” Martin McDonagh
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
• “The Fabelmans” Steven Spielberg
• “Tár” Todd Field
• “Triangle of Sadness” Ruben Östlund

Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Upset: The Fabelmans
Analysis: This felt like a Birdman situation for a little while, but it became much more apparent sooner The Daniels would likely take the Best Directing Award which is probably the showiest directorial achievement in this category since Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• “All That Breathes” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
• “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
• “Fire of Love” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
• “A House Made of Splinters” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
• “Navalny” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Who will win: “Navalny”
Upset: “Fire of Love”
Analysis: I wish All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or Fire of Love could win, but they cannot compete against the extremely timely Navalny that has won all the most important precursors.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

• “The Elephant Whisperers” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
• “Haulout” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
• “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
• “The Martha Mitchell Effect” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
• “Stranger at the Gate” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Who will win: The Elephant Whispers
Upset: Stranger at the Gate
Analysis: Most of my awards friends have been switching to Stranger at the Gate which is the time of low production value short that’s moving enough to sway people into thinking it’s a dark horse contender, but I’m going to stick with the Netflix frontrunner.

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

• “The Banshees of Inisherin” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• “Elvis” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Paul Rogers
• “Tár” Monika Willi
• “Top Gun: Maverick” Eddie Hamilton

Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Upset: Top Gun: Maverick
Analysis: In a hundred Oscar races, Top Gun: Maverick would’ve won this award easily, but not so fast with the future Best Picture winner that has Editing that feels like a secondary lead character and probably the showiest in the category since Whiplash which also became obvious to take the category once it won the BAFTA award. Plus, the film one BAFTA without even winning Best Film there.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Germany
• “Argentina, 1985” Argentina
• “Close” Belgium
• “EO” Poland
• “The Quiet Girl” Ireland

Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Close
Analysis: Lock

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
• “The Batman” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
• “Elvis” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
• “The Whale” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Who will win: Elvis
Upset: The Whale
Analysis: 1) It won 2) It’s a Best Picture nominee 3) Austin Butler is winning, but if The Whale takes this award early on in the night I might be sweating bullets by the time the Best Actor category drops

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Volker Bertelmann
• “Babylon” Justin Hurwitz
• “The Banshees of Inisherin” Carter Burwell
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Son Lux
• “The Fabelmans” John Williams

Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Babylon
Analysis: Babylon has the showiest musical score, but from reading voter testimonials voters really, really don’t like that movie, so I’m going with the BAFTA winner against my initial instinct.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)

• “Applause” from “Tell It like a Woman”
  Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
  Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
  Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
  Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
• “This Is A Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
  Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Who will win: Naatu Naatu” from “RRR
Upset: Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick Naatu Naatu”
Analysis: My gut says to go with Top Gun, but people are right the Hold My Hand song never blew up the way people thought it would, and RRR’s team has been campaigning their butts off for the groundbreaking film to the point people are checking out its already award-winning song (Critics Choice and Golden Globe).

ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
• “Avatar: The Way of Water” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
• “Babylon” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• “Elvis” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
• “The Fabelmans” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

Who will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Upset: Elvis
Analysis: Babylon is the frontrunner, but I’m not buying it. It was never once against Avatar: The Way of Water which is near-undeniable work, but the fact it’s a sequel may hinder its perception. It’s down to Elvis and Avatar: The Way of Water, and is the one category I’ll be debating up until the show starts. Baz Luhrmann also carries an excellent crafts track record in the category and the fact it lost BAFTA should not make you sweat too much because Moulin Rouge also lost that award, plus it’s a very lavish work he created a Luhrmann-infused old Vegas and Graceland while filming in Australia!

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
• “The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
• “Ice Merchants” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
• “My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
• “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon

Who will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Upset: My Year of Dicks
Analysis: My heart wants My Year of Dicks to win, but it’s probably going to be the one that makes you cry with sublime animation and being pushed by AppleTV+.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• “An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
• “Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
• “Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
• “Night Ride” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
• “The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad

Who will win: The Red Suitcase
Upset: The Irish Goodbye
Analysis: A toughie. Night Ride is probably more in this Oscar race than people want you to realize, but it’s down to Le Pupille– the best filmmaking and featuring child actors which is a huge plus, but it’s too artsy, The Red Suitcase—super tense, well-paced, engaging, and appearing on a lot of anonymous revealed ballots, and An Irish Goodbye that hits every checklist of movies that win the category—about mortality, the power of love, brothers, Spoken in English, short, disability, etc.

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
• “Avatar: The Way of Water” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
• “The Batman” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
• “Elvis” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
• “Top Gun: Maverick” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Upset: Top Gun: Maverick
Analysis: My thinking: history of category 1) Hacksaw Ridge beat La La Land. i.e., War movies have a strong history to the point they beat a Best Picture musical frontrunner 2) – All Quiet is stronger than Top Gun at the Academy. If the movie is stronger than Top Gun. Why would it lose? 3)- The sound work in All Quiet is incredible, won BAFTA, and is honestly its standout element. 4)- Top Gun is perhaps a stronger guild movie than an Academy movie. Quiet is a stronger Academy movie than Guild movie.

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
• “Avatar: The Way of Water” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
• “The Batman” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
• “Top Gun: Maverick” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Who will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Upset: Top Gun: Maverick
Analysis: Probably the biggest lock of the entire night.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Written by Rian Johnson
• “Living” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• “Top Gun: Maverick” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• “Women Talking” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Who will win: Women Talking
Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Analysis: A million scenarios where Women Talking would’ve lost here and it didn’t happen. Its main competition is a war film that has a very poor genre track record here, and Sarah Polley has USC + WGA backing her up. While All Quiet wasn’t eligible at WGA, you can assume it likely would’ve still lost given neither movie cracked PGA. Polley is pulling off what Gerwig wasn’t able to do despite being in 10th place. I love Polley as a filmmaker and this Award will hopefully inspire her to take on more ambitious projects!

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• “The Banshees of Inisherin” Written by Martin McDonagh
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• “The Fabelmans” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• “Tár” Written by Todd Field
• “Triangle of Sadness” Written by Ruben Östlund

Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Upset: The Banshees of Inisherin
Analysis: If Birdman didn’t teach you this is a near-lock despite losing BAFTA, I don’t know what will!