by Jason Osiason

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

THE FATHER
MANK
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alternate: Promising Young Woman
Analysis: Aaron Sorkin is one HFPA’s go-to guys and here’s there chance to finally reward him in the Best Picture category for Trial. Bonus points for being an Ensemble film.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

VIOLA DAVIS MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANDRA DAY THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
VANESSA KIRBY PIECES OF A WOMAN
FRANCES MCDORMAND NOMADLAND
CAREY MULLIGAN PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Alternate: Viola Davis
Analysis: It’s undeniable at this point.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

RIZ AHMED SOUND OF METAL
CHADWICK BOSEMAN MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANTHONY HOPKINS THE FATHER
GARY OLDMAN MANK
TAHAR RAHIM THE MAURITANIAN

Who Will Win: Anthony Hopkins
Alternate: Chadwick Boseman
Analysis: The HFPA already snubbed Boseman for Da 5 Bloods. Something they did not do with Jamie Foxx for Collateral when he also won for his music-driven Oscar contender, Ray. HFPA went gaga over The Father and word is they love it. On the other hand, Ma Rainey seemed to barely phase them. It’s a close raise and these little things matter. Can they also deny one of the final opportunities to give Anthony Hopkins his first Golden Globe for what is basically an undeniable performance? I don’t think so either.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
HAMILTON
MUSIC
PALM SPRINGS
THE PROM

Who Will Win: Hamilton
Alternate: Palm Springs
Analysis: HFPA loves Hamilton. Miranda’s Musical was a historical phenomenon and if you think the HFPA will dismiss it for not actual being a true motion picture, then I think you’re just projecting your own feelings.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

MARIA BAKALOVA BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
KATE HUDSON MUSIC
MICHELLE PFEIFFER FRENCH EXIT
ROSAMUND PIKE I CARE A LOT
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY EMMA.

Who Will Win: Maria Bakalova
Alternate: Michelle Pfeiffer
Who Should Win: Michelle Pfeiffer
Analysis: This is not even close race. Congrats, Maria Bakalova!

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

SACHA BARON COHEN BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
JAMES CORDEN THE PROM
LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA HAMILTON
DEV PATEL THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD
ANDY SAMBERG PALM SPRINGS

Who Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Alternate: Andy Samberg
Analysis: Surprised this prediction seems like a risk, but if you think Hamilton is winning Best Picture – Comedy or Musical you should also think Miranda is taking Best Actor. Not to mention Lin constantly collaborates with the HFPA on events and this is already his third Golden Globe nomination. He’s undeniably fantastic in the titular role and I don’t think they’re going to deny Miranda the opportunity for a solo-speech. Immediately dismissing Sacha Baron Cohen as he already won for the Borat role and the HFPA won’t be shameless enough to reward him twice.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS

Who Will Win: Soul
Alternate: Wolfwalkers
Analysis: There was a time when Wolfwalkers was gaining heat, but Soul has all the momentum now.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

ANOTHER ROUND
LA LLORONA
THE LIFE AHEAD
MINARI
TWO OF US

Who Will Win: Minari
Alternate: Another Round
Analysis: Another Round is a spoiler possibility, but in the face of it up against a potential Oscar Best Picture nominee from A24, I’d feel more confident if Mads Mikkelsen had actually gotten a Best Actor nomination (there was plenty of room). For that reason alone, I’m sticking with the Minari.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

GLENN CLOSE HILLBILLY ELEGY
OLIVIA COLMAN THE FATHER
JODIE FOSTER THE MAURITANIAN
AMANDA SEYFRIED MANK
HELENA ZENGEL NEWS OF THE WORLD

Who Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
Alternate: Glenn Close
Analysis: If Glenn Close hadn’t just won and Amy Adams had been nominated alongside her, I’d be tempted, but this is Amanda Seyfried’s Golden Globe to lose. SAG Snub be damned, Seyfried deservingly campaigned like a frontrunner and she will be rewarded as one by the HFPA for Mank.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

SACHA BARON COHEN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
DANIEL KALUUYA JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
JARED LETO THE LITTLE THINGS
BILL MURRAY ON THE ROCKS
LESLIE ODOM JR. ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…

Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen
Analysis: Kaluuya as Fred Hampton is a loud and show-stopping co-lead performance in an acclaimed biographical film from a former Golden Globe nominee and soon to be Oscar-frontrunner. Enough said.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

EMERALD FENNELL PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
DAVID FINCHER MANK
REGINA KING ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
AARON SORKIN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
CHLOÉ ZHAO NOMADLAND

Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao
Alternate: Aaron Sorkin or David Fincher
Analysis: The HFPA loves giving this award to big name directors. That near-fact alone makes me immediately dismiss Zhao, but it would feel cheap if Aaron Sorkin won and the tea leaves don’t feel strong enough for David Fincher to win. I’m going to go with frontrunner Chloe Zhao against my better instincts which will drop a path for a Best Picture win at the Oscars down the road.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

EMERALD FENNELL PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
JACK FINCHER MANK
AARON SORKIN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
FLORIAN ZELLER, CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON THE FATHER
CHLOÉ ZHAO NOMADLAND

Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Fact is the HFPA loved Promising Young Woman. The screenplay for it was one of its biggest delights. This is probably my biggest risk of the night and if Sorkin had not just recently won for Steve Jobs five years ago I’d be close to jumping ship. I’m predicting this to go similarly to the bloodbath between Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman in 2015. Promising Young Woman takes the Screenplay and the Lead award while the ensemble heaviest movie by an auteur they love most takes the grand prize. This will also favor a path for Fennell’s very deserving screenplay to claim the Oscar.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

THE MIDNIGHT SKY
TENET
NEWS OF THE WORLD
MANK
SOUL

Who Will Win: Soul
Alternate: Mank
Analysis: Let’s be frank, I prefer Mank’s score. Soul being the current frontrunner is not even what is convincing me to predict, but the fact it ambitiously incorporates jazz music into its composition thanks to musician Jon Batiste is what’s pushing me most.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

“FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
“HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
“IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
“SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
“TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

Who Will Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Alternate: Tigress & Tweed, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Analysis: The Golden Globes’ major guilty pleasure is rewarding celebrities in this category even if the songs are not so great. It will all come down to who the HFPA likes more and I’m leaning the Leslie Odom Jr’s One Night in Miami anthem because I think that’s the movie they also prefer in the end and it will also go on to win the Oscar.